What the hell do I know?

So much for prognosticating primary results. I should go back to betting on football - except I once lost seven straight Super Bowl picks in the 1970s (something about being a Vikings fan and hating Miami, Pittsburgh, Oakland, and Dallas).

The McCain surge is bad news for the blue team - he's easily the strongest R. candidate for the general election. Not that anyone should believe me, but my original prediction some three years ago is still quasi-viable: McCain will be the R's nominee, Hillary won't make it out of South Carolina, and McCain will end up beating whoever the Democrats put up (I won't pretend that I'd heard of Obama before the 2004 DNC). Unfortunately, looking back at my archived blog posts, I was foolish enough in November 2006 to offer to bet $100 that "neither Hillary nor Obama will make it to the Convention as viable candidates." Hmmm.

I hope Mitt means it when he says he's in the race for the long haul - he's wasting all the right people's money. And someday, Rudy will actually compete somewhere, and Ol' Gator Fred Thompson will wake up and remember that there's a reason they call it "running" for president. Go Governor Huckleberry!

Vote Free or Die

And on to the next highly representative American state primary. How much will it matter that Hillary choked up (and ended up on the front page of the N.Y. Times)? Is it another Edmund Muskie/melting snowflakes moment? My wife claims that showing emotion humanizes the Iron Lady and makes women relate better to her. Will the Republicans wake up and realize that McCain is far and away their best chance?

New drinking game - a sip every time a Republican promises to "protect" or "defend" America, chug every time a Democrat promises "change" --

Predictions: Obama 38%, Clinton 24%, Edwards 19% --

McCain 34%, Romney 28%, Huckabee 18% --

They're Off!

Hey, it's the first day of the 2008 presidential election campaign. Never mind all that shit over the last year, it begins tonight.

A frightening possibility: outgoing Salt Lake City mayor Rocky Anderson, a close friend of Ralph Nader's, refused yesterday to dismiss the rumor that Nader will run again for president (although he did say the running mate won't be Kucinich). Nader-Rocky? Will we need two big sticks to crack over their heads and finally allow a reasonable human being to run the GOP jackals out of town??

My Iowa predictions, just under the wire: Dems go Obama-Edwards-Clinton; Republicans Huckabee-Romney-whogivesashit.